My Prophecy at the Hackers Camp MCH2022

On the recent huge hackers camp I was invited, on July 23 2022 in Zeewolde near Amsterdam, to give a 10 MINUTES “Lightning Talk” about our future. Rather difficult for me since i suffer from “Memory of the Future syndrome”. I already know but not many people want to know about things they do not expect. On the other hand, pilots are trained in simulators to cope with situations that are unlikely and that they may not like. But that is not the point: pilots and competent managers, must know what TO DO in a few seconds/minutes after such situations happen.

Below is the video recording of that (my speech starts at 18:30 – you can control that on the lower part of the screen below) and you can see below the outline of my prepared text.

If you want me to come and explain in more depth, you can invite me to come and lecture/ train you at your site, to motivate young geeks, nerds and other autistic Harry’s and Hermione’s to build our collective future in a positive direction. As Greta Thunberg has shown, young people ARE interested in what will happen and how we together might influence that, instead of listening as slaves to what the businessmen of the WEF dictate or what the Russian oligarchs want us to believe.

Video at: https://media.ccc.de/v/mch2022-316-1-lightning-talks-saturday#t=1110

Here is the text I had prepared that day :

==============
The Liebig Law Method #LLM To Build Networks

By Jaap van Till, theConnectivist

Caused by massive interconnection of everything we have built complexity
which can NOT be centraly controled anymore in nations. We are faced worldwide
with a number of crises: energy, climate, migration, etc etc.


Since hackers know what they talk about, learn fast together and get things
working, it can be expected that they will do very positive things.
After the Apocalypse. With more power.


How? By the Liebig Law Method. Network improvement by removing obstacles, bypassing and tunneling. Constructing worldwide collective intelligence with decentral
authority to act.

You have permission to help build the Global Brain with > 10^10 CONNECTED People.
================

And below I show the same text but then expanded with supporting material and links to recent relevant publications.

========================== Text of Lightning Talk========

(Pictures, references, text in red = added later)

The Liebig Law Method To Build Networks

By Jaap van Till, theConnectivist

Caused by massive interconnection of everything we have built complexity which can NOT be centraly controled anymore by nation states.

Authoritarian leaders of nation states react to this complexity with panic and unsuccesful attempts to control everything with surveillance systems, tracking huge bureacratic computer systems, while they run into the brick walls of Ashby’s Law (the computer Model they use must be at least as complex as the part of Reality they try to control). Since this is overambitious their measures often do not work even with the help of huge computer systems or they make situations even worse by attaining the reverse of what was aimed. Gathering data is also fed by financial hunger to extract value from the privacy of individuals for the benefit of advertisers or target voters with propaganda. The dangerous road these controlaholics sometimes take is that instead of lowering their ambitions to smaller segments of reality, they start to simplify Reality (can be seen from the forms i have to fill in, my answers are often not in the multiple choices you can make) or even more lethal by arresting and ‘processing’ people (foreigners, artists, Jews, Gypsies, gays, migrants, coloreds) and closing borders for imigrants. And in such dictatorships careers are made not by the most competents, but by those most loyal to the leader.

We are faced worldwide with a number of crises: energy, climate, migration, WWIII etc. etc.

And multiple Transitions ( all part of a Zeitenwende) are happening in all societies of the world as forecasted and announced by prophets, see the list in [1] and [2]. For instance the change from electronics to photonics & fiber optics over decades is hardly noticable to the general public but result in vast and unstoppable impacts. These transitions are characterized by a number of subsequent distinct wealth surges (golden ages, described by Carlote Perez) when new value is created, enabled by bold new use of general purpose technologies.

The value creation (as successor to the failing neo-liberal / capitalist value extraction at the expense of enslaved people and natural resources) is driven by the ICT Networking Effects [3] enabling Synthesis (combinations of diversity and specialisation) resulting in Synergy.

Where? Not only will the future show sudden surges, also these will be geographicaly non-uniform. Urbanization is already visible in several scales. From small villages to huge city-areas like Hong Kong and Mumbai. Such “urban/city-areas” will replace the function of nation states, as introduced by prof. Ulrike Guerot, as next step for the EU. An interesting example will be the multi circular “city-area” of #EuroDelta, consisting of [Flanders & Nordrhein-Westfalen & The Netherlands], all sharing the cultural background of mangrove marches of three rivers where the sea will come in due to the fluctuating climate changes. A logic next step to make combinations of specialists is to form chains of such city areas so people can travel and do commerce (modern day Hanse cities) from Dublin to Shanghai as I prognosed the Eurasian Backbone would form, called #Corridoria [4]. Along the Rhine and Danube and then through Turkey and Iran following one of the new Silk Routes into China, (Belt and Road Initiative now under construction). Vital high availability infrastructure will be the merging [5] of [the Digital Infrastructure & Smart Energy Transport & rail and road Transport for people, food and goods] [5] and [6]. These merged logistics of info, energy and food are also present in our body and in forrests. On the West coast of North- and South- America a similar city-area chain + infrastructures will develop, called #Cascadia .

Corridoria, Jaap van Till 2014

From (I) the present ICT based Apocalypse (Digitalisation) we will move in time to

(II) Circular Economies

positioning Circular Economy

and then to (III) an era of Regeneration of Nature including humans (if we are lucky), see Monbiot in the [1] “Regenesis” book.

=======

To summarize: “What comes NEXT” . Alexandre Lemille (University of Lille) has give a schematic answer to that:

For commentary and positioning of “Circular” and “Regenerative” please see the posting of Alexander Lemille (2020) on https://alexlemille.medium.com/the-circular-humansphere-2020-update-8b2df60a477

Lemille’s comment on the above graph is as follows: “Within one schematic you can visualise how one can preserve human life on Earth by aligning ourselves with regenerative adaptation strategies.

Adding current and upcoming economic models as well as future regenerative ones ((synergy!!)) shows the clear path towards more value ((Mazzucato)) for societies – among other communities of species – thanks to a better understanding of living systems.

The move within the ecosystem rules, where Humans consider themselves as ‘circular beings’ in a deeply empathic life model (or models), is here very obvious”

The posting of Lemille is based on a graph by Bill Reed (2007). My point is that the middle of the three circles: Circular Economy, overlap with the Learning Curve of ICT Golden Age (I). We are halfway into that, as propoposed by Carlota Perez.

I. LINEAR ECONOMY (only economics matter) -Polluting & Abusive Societies- Degenerating Systems (value extraction at the expense of nature or a large group of workers). NeoLib mindset & govt policies.

II. CIRCULAR ECONOMY (Economics remains essential) Recycling & Consuming Societies *** We are halfway here, Nearly everybody is working on a computer screen and on the smartphone all day and night. ICT is the Core Technology in this age. “Digitalisation” of companies and organisations is the most urgent to survive and create jobs. Central stearing of the agnostic futureproof Digital Infrastructure (see my blog about Internet Worldwide Links) and ICT Education and Building of the Transport Infrastructures and Energy Infrastructures for and between City Regions (Smart Cities) must have top long term priorities. (creation of value by INTERCONNECTING and combining contributions from people with diverse skills and backgrounds, so Synergy is created. Horizontal P2P communiction. Optic Fiber infra. FttHome. Digital Democracy. fast response to instabilities. The five Network Effects (see my blogs about those). SYNERGY. Redgrid.io – Australia: O.S. for the DECENTRAL Energy Grids based on HoloChain. RE-definition and implementation of Democracy. Rejection of Fascism. Truth and respect supported by ‘Social Super Resolution’ (#SSR). Collective Intelligence & Distributed Authority. Value Creation Structure.

III. (restorative and inclusive societies –> REGENERATIVE LIFE MODELS (Ecosystemic rules take over, see Monbiot’s book [1])–> Regenerating Systems –> Symbiotic & Valued Societies –> regenerative & caring for all Life species. Work on these is starting up to value Life forces and learn from it to be part of Nature and evolve according to its laws. Swarms, collective intelligence of tribes and cities, with DISTRIBUTED authority in constant communication. Holographic fractal structures which can handle patterns and complexity in a very fast way. The quality of the capillaries define the health of the total swarm/tribe/body + the qualty of the external links to the environtment. Governance by Liebigs Law, unplugging obstructions like in the Suez Canal ! #GlobalBrain

===============================


Who? Since hackers know what they talk about, learn fast together and get things working, it can be expected that they will do very positive things. After the Apocalypse (=Time of Revelations, Now). Networking with more power in groups [Sibylle Berg: 7a , 7b]


How? By the Liebig Law Method #LLM. Network improvement by removing obstacles, bypassing and tunneling. This approach can cope with complexity [8].

Engineers and hackers applying this Method can resort to staying humble but focused and effective. Humility also shows that you respect imperfection and incompleteness & are willing to learn and improve. The #LLM states that growth is dictated not by the total resources available, but by ONE: the scarcest resource (limiting factor). The law has also been applied to biological populations and ecosystem models for factors such as sunlight or mineral nutrients. There should be a warning here: if that one scarce resource is removed as limiting (by making it more abundant) another factor will take over as limiting the whole yield (non-linear = difficult to comprehend for politicians). Example: the car in front of a traffic congestion. Second warning: the scarce resource can be very local, which is relevant for micro-agriculture: GPS + sensor steered fertiliser dispensing.

Constructing (IV) worldwide “collective intelligence with decentral authority to act”.

Collective intelligence is the process by which a large group of individuals gather/ interconnect and share their knowledge, data and skills for the purpose of solving societal issues and/or create value [9], see also the Wikipedia defintion and the issues that are faced: swarms, group mind and a number of other names. And it can apply to massive amounts of people and/or devices that can only be coordinated/ controlled in a decentral way. That makes it less vulnerable, faster responding and repairs its-self by plasticity, like the brain does. My point is that I see development of such ways of organizing people in non-hierarchical ways making use of AI and interconnecting and P2P collaborating in such a way that central coordination (management) is much less needed, since everybody gets (or can get) overviews of the total situation in which they participate. These shared overviews are replicated in a way similar to holograms (even a small fraction contains the essentials of the total picture). Hierarchies could not do that. With computer network support now we can. Such Groups often appear from teams consisting of SPECIALIST who are best at a certain skill or knowledge who join people who are driven with an obsession to learn and improve their own complementary specialty by their ability to listen and learn from others and who can contribute by observing the problem at hand from a different angle and background. One of the most spectacular of such Teams is #Bellingcat, an NL/UK team of open source journalists who check PR and propaganda statements and films from governments who create fakenews, see “Truth in a post-truth world“. PS: IMHO their home grown computer supported method is a kind of “super resolution” process combining many images and pictures from many sources, by extrapolating a shared FFT spectrum.

Point is that the local participants & contributers must be able to act and do things in their local context, which will differ from what others in the collective experience. That means de-central authority is allowed but all others can look in to what is done in other places in real time. This makes such Group a kind of organism its-self with distributed and de-centraly shared Models (holograms) which is replicated and which can scale up. So such Groups CAN cope with complexity and learn constantly from what they do together in a kind of virtual “COMMONS” based on shown abilities, respect and trust. And yes, decisions are made on the basis of informed concensus like in a DEMOCRACY. See Michel Bauwens https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Michel_Bauwens/Full_Bio

One of the most successful groups who do this collective intelligence is the BetaCodex network who make explicit the third network of Knowledge Workers and Innovators in companies. Those people who drive value creation and change, in a kind of informal third network in companies, exactly what I consider the “collective intelligence group with decentral authority”, see the white papers of [10] , follow @BetaCodex_INTL community on Twitter and follow its driver on Twitter:

Niels Pflaeging @nielsPflaeging

BetaCodex principles [Red42]

Upscaling from Teams, Companies it is important to notice the success of Networked Organizations. These are Value Chains of the BEST companies in the world who supply eachother with the best possible components to be assembled by the next aggregator in the chain. An example is the IC design and manufacture chain where ASML is part of see my blog about that [11]. Less well perceived and understood is that such worldwide networked organizations are tightly interconnected collective intelligences with decentral authority (each to be and stay the best suppliers in the chain).

In this regard it is interesting to notice what children nowadays like most: gaming with remote friends and doing “things” online ALL DAY. Even in the tents on holiday they lay horizontal with their smartphone in front of them. When I was that age we where looking for frogs in the woods now they are looking for WiFi and power sockets, wherever they are. Their parents are not amused by this and ask them to go outside and play, which they do: sit outside and watch their little screens.

young and online

When i was a kid we loved to read & watch “comic books”, which our parents did not understand and could not percieve: pictures instead of texts? I had even a comic called Hamlet, from Shakespeare :-). Teachers did not allow comic books in school. What we loved and shared were in fact not picture books but “graphic novels”, best ones from Belgium and France. Little film scripts images, with all the imagination and convention of action films. Now the children are hooked on real films. On TikTok and moving selfies on Instagram and Telegram. And the kids build decentral collective intelligent communities around those shared films using their mobile smartphones and tablets.

The next phase after “collective intelligence communities” is (V) Community Brain Building

You have permission to help build (V) the Global Brain [11] with > 10^10 interCONNECTED People. [12]


That phase starts with the realisation that “collective INTELLIGENT communities” can best be built by looking more closely at how the human BRAIN is built, most of it still a mystery. Its functions can be recognized as a parallel structure analysing and manipulating 2D and 3D images coming from the eyes and then acting upon that information (most of the brain is busy with that. Another part analyses and manipulate language, semoitics = meaning, speech, texts (from the ears, in a serial structure).

In a simplified way that mental image manipulation can be modeled as a real time loop :

[ x,y aggregation of sensor input –> sorting & orthogonal transformed –> matching (correlating) with Mental Model, learning –> stored in shortterm memory –> longtime memories “films”, dreams–> (social) rules, ethics, values, priorities—> actuators —-> Reality environtment —-> sensors see x,y input ]

Communities of people are in this phase constructed as connected brains, and inside brains we are discovering structures that are also connected as layers of lens-like constructions (every point connected to every other point) see the exiting views of Jeff Hawkins [11].

If we look how the brain is built in a baby during pregnancy we can map that on how communities on this planet might be building up & structured in this phase V.

The human brain is by far the most complex organ that nature has ever produced: 100 billion nerve cells (neurons) in our scull and nervous system each connected with an Axon to hundreds of other neurons by synapses. The links a carry analog signals in the shape of binary pulse trains with variable repetition rate (sequency).

Human brains are a miracle : 3 phases. 

a. Just after conception (fertilisation of an human egg) braincells are constructed at a baffling speed.  It is a massive explosion of the growth of number of neurons (complex nerve cells) in brain and spine, while swimming in the womb of the mother; starting eight weeks after conception, increasing by many millions each hour. 

b. After five weeks this process slows down. The stage of proliferation of neurons in the brain is completed, with about hundred billion cells; that each starting to make connections. Some to nearby nervecells some all the way to the other side of the brain.  Until now we did not know according to what plan or procedure. Now (August 2022) we know from the article of Kerstjens [13]: connection is in relation to“family ties” (*) / tribal (strong links in sociology)  as the DNA adress book states.

c. After birth the baby wakes up and becomes aware and consious and starts LEARNING fast using the prewiring of b. The first 2 years are crucial for that since certain brain links are stimulated and get more connected and others which are not used (fired with pulse trains) die and get absorbed to build new cells. ‘Edited’ you can say. By the time of birth, a typical nerve cell may communicate directly with several thousand other cells. And the growth of connections continues after birth. 75 % of connections for the babybrain still have to be made after birth and grows 350 gram to 1500 gram with this proliferation of connections. Mainly under influence of the signaling functions of the brain and the incoming information from the different senses. And (self) consiousness, social interactions and learning starts at a impressive pace the first 2 years of childhood and onwards.  By the time of adulthood many human nerve cells are making direct connections with as many as a quarter of a million other cells.

PS it turns out that phases 1, 2, and 3 do not stop at a certain age, as was previously thought, but go on although less strong while aging, called PLASTICITY.  The structure is parallel and massively redundant, which makes brains of humans very resilient and self-organising.

The Global Brain metaphore, see [12] maps this brain growth on human communities. Similar trends can be observed in human society on this planet. For the last couple of centuries the number (a) of ‘cells’ (humans) in the embryonic global brain has been proliferating, to about 8 billion people. But the last decades population growth is slowing down and will reach about 10^10 = 10 billion (!) people in 2025 (?) depending on a number of uncertain factors. But it is also moving into the next phase — the linking (b) of the billions of human minds into 1 single network. In 2016 there where about 10 billion cell phones sold and about 5 billion people connected to the internet with fixed links or wireless. This looks like a planetary nervous system for a Global Brain that is starting to function, including with memory for knowledge, search engines for pattern recognition and other brainfunctions.  Will Gaia wake up (c) about now as a baby, and will it become self conscious?  Will we notice that as just nerve cells of a awakening global brain? I hope to live to see it happen and maybe you will notice it too when it happens. 10 billion interconnected people with smartphones, tablets and laptops with Wifi and optic fibers: THAT is the threshold of MY prophecy.

The 10 billion number (10^10) of people (now in 2022 8 billion= 8* 10^9) is a threshold that is approaching. A threshold paleontologue and Jesuit priest Pierre Teilhard de Chardin also has forecasted as a step in evolution (point Omega) that all of Nature would be merged into one being: Gaia. It is not 500 Million as the statue in Georgia of the Oligarchs insisted on. Peter Russell found in his book, see [12] that after the Big Bang the millions of years of evolution on Earth can be characterized by a number of sudden transitions: evolutionary leaps where many diverse components combined (interconnected) into a new more complex synergistic entity and platform. For instance atoms –> molecules—>life platforms: cells–> tissues, organs—> bacteria—> animals—> selfconscious humans–> agricultural soc–>industrial soc–> network society. 

(*) I wonder if neuron links are also made by way of “weak links“( i called those “Btwieners” in a population). The inter-tribe links account for stability ! A kind of Gandalf figures 🙂 My friend prof Csermely from Hungary wrote a book called “Weak Links” about such ‘connectors’,which appear to function all over nature. *** I will ask Stan Kerstjens ETH Zurich if they have noticed weak links (trans family ties) at work too.*** 

Please notice that Nature is fractal and Life survives by self-copying cooperation and communities. Forests survive in a similar way using vast subsoil networks, anthills using smell tracs with simple codes, bacteria cultures of hundreds of billions connected in a small space, flocks of birds and schools of fish are much more safe flying / swimming together while in constant connection together.

Phase(VI): Gaia becomes alive and conscious. And will start connecting with other planets. That is what Vinton Cerf and Elon Musk are working on……..

The Global Brain book

========================

Conclusion:

Society does not move in a continuous process with changes or “from A to B” as many gurus want you to believe. We can now recognize five distinct Wealth Surges & golden ages in History with techno-economic shifts DISCONTINUOUS between them, and each with an all pervasive dominant and group confirmed mindset as described by prof. Carlota Perez, University College London:

  1. The Industrial Revolution
  2. Age of steam & railways
  3. Steel & heavy engineering
  4. Age of fossil fuels Oil, Chemo-Mechanics, Automobiles and mass production. Value extraction
  5. (I) The age of ICT, Digitalization,Telecom networks and Internet (now). Network effects, Value creation by synthesis and synergy

Next will be (for future historians):

(II). Circular Economy, Biotech, Nanotech, repair, re-use


(III). Regeneration of ecologies and 1Planet Nature including humans

(IV) Constructing networks of Collective Intelligence with decentral Authority

(V) Building of The Global Brain on which we are the connected brain cells

(VI) Gaia becomes alive and conscious. And will start connecting with other planets

Maybe what I envision are the next steps in Evolution, and the Zeitenwende we go through shows the power of LIFE as a force at work. Collective civilisation is the meaning of Life ?


          ir J.W. Jaap van Till  troubleshooter WordPress blog:  TheConnectivist

references

[1] See blog, point 5 : https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2022/07/20/after-the-apocalypse-1-can-we-prevent-famines/

[2] Jaap van Till; Chapter 3 in book : https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2020/11/18/new-handbook-innovation-in-interactive-systems/

[3] Jaap van Till; blog presenting the Four Network Effects: https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/np9-engines-for-the-new-power-the-four-network-effects/

[4] Jaap van Till; Corridoria see blogs 2014: https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/the-list-of-booming-city-regions-on-the-corridoria-trail-april13-14/

[5] Parag Khanna; “Move”, 2021 and “Connectography: Mapping the Global Network Revolution”, 2016

[6] David Sun, CEO of Electric Power Digitalisation Business Unit, Huawei; https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/smart-grid/building-next-generation-electric-power-communication-networks/

[7a, 7b] Two books bestselling in the German language (will be translated into English this year) by Swiss author Sibylle Berg. The first “GRM” describes what neglected children in England are doing to survive poverty, failing parents and failing public assistance services. The second one “RCE” forecasts what groups of geeks and nerds will do all over the world to use their network power. This supports my prophesy for the Hackers at the MCH2022.org camp.

It may be no coincidence that her first name is Sibylle: princesses called like that where prophetesses or oracles in Ancient Greece

[8] Liebig’s Law, about 1850; to increase crop yield, in reaction to large scale famines, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig%27s_law_of_the_minimum

[9] What is Collective Intelligence? – ClearPeople (Microsoft?)

Wikipedia gives a much wider definition, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_intelligence

There is also a Collective Intelligence newsletter.

[10] https://betacodex.org/white-papers/ and see @BetaCodex_INTL community on Twitter and BetaCodex.org

[11] Jeff Hawkins, “A Thousand Brains” -a new theory of intelligence-, March 2021, Basic Books

[12] Global Brain metaphore, threshold for evolutionary jump = 10 ^ 10 (10 Billion) connected: https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2016/09/30/the-1planet-project-1-the-global-brain-metaphor/

[13] Felix Würsten, ETH Zurich, ” Network assembly through cell division: How nerve cells in the brain connect during development”, August 25, 2022; https://phys.org/news/2022-08-network-cell-division-nerve-cells.html, brilliant discovery by Stan Kerstjens, doctoral student, et.al.

# Dedicated to Arjen Kamphuis. #

Ir. Jaap van Till (2022), (CC) BY-NC 4.0
         

About broodjejaap

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