Blank’s Rule – To predict the future 1/3 of you need to be crazy

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Hat tip to Iddo Bante who found this and posted it on LinkedIn.

To predict the future 1/3 of you need to be crazy

Summary: Searching for disruptive and innovative strategies, organizations often assemble panels of experts made up of people whose ideas were relevant in the past. But by gathering the innovators from the past, the past is what’s being asked for. Those who copy the past have doomed their future. A better approach is to look for people who are the contrarians, whose ideas, while they sound crazy, are focused on the future.

If your gathered advisory board, task force, panel, etc., tasked with predicting the future doesn’t have 1/3 contrarians, all you’re going to do is predict the past. Blank’s rules for an innovation task force are:

  • 1/3 insiders who know the processes and politics. Half of those who would provide top cover to non-standard solutions.
  • 1/3 outsiders who represent “brand-name wisdom”. They provide cover and historical context.
  • 1/6 crazy insiders, the rebels at work.
  • 1/6 crazy outsiders with unique insights in the last years. They’re in sync with the crazy insiders and can provide the insiders with “cover”.

So for successful teams DIVERSITY is key: And And And ( shorthand: &&) instead of Or Or Or. In other words “TransTribal Collaboration” by people with a wide spectrum of different backgrouds, specialities, cultural prejudices, and angles of vision. Disagree-ers, edgelings, outliers, transborderers are essential. This is hard, since even inside tribes with nearly only yes-men and yes-women who only confirm eachother all day collaboration is difficult. Weaving them together into a creative crew who wants to learn constantly from eachother and from the clients is the task you have to face.

This fits well with the manifesto written by Frans Timmermans (EU Commissionar) about harnessing the European diversity as a wealth creating force.

 

Jaap van Till, The Connectivist

For the full article read this: Blank’s Rule – To predict the future 1/3 of you need to be crazy

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