Telco Summer Holiday Time

Frans PTT bord It must be that time of year again. In the good and quiet days when PTT’s where still a state monopoly instead of a market monopoly like right now, in the summertime there where significantly less disruptions in leased lines since nobody was busy ripping whole MDF racks out to do tests, without telling anybody. Why should they. And the PTT’s in different countries had their own resting vacation parks. Those days are gone. Jaap van Till,   theConnectivist

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ABOUT

foto WTR JvT Terena

About

(this page can be reached by button on the Home page of The Connectivist blog, but some people told me they have difficulty finding those Home and About buttons)

Jaap van Till is a CONNECTIVIST, who specializes in designing disruptive technology network architecture and infrastructure for improving P2P cooperation between people and collaboration across networks. He writes about the emerging forces of social media driven by smart phones, tablets and the growth of Fiber-to-the-Home, and new mobile data access technologies. Powerful stuff for the emerging CONNECTION ECONOMY.

1. Jaap van Till’s mission is: to help P2P Empower the Creative Class

2. Some background:

His essay on The Power of Flocking http://www.scienceguide.nl/200907/technologies-of-flocking-.aspx has been widely discussed on the Internet.  Van Till has consulted successfully on using innovative technologies to rethink worldwide networks for Education and Research (NREN’s) as well as huge private company networks, as partner at Stratix Consultants (NL). His consultancy work centres around explaining technology to managers and explaining objectives to network specialists. The canyon between geeks and managers is still wide and deep. Van Till served as Professor for Corporate Networks and Internet Infrastructure at Delft University (NL) and  Internet Infrastructure Professor at the HAN Polytechnic in Arnhem (NL). His inventions include “Tillegraaf ” baseband modems and “Plector” local multiplexers. Weaving broadband networks between people to work together and create value in the Connection Economy.

3. You can consult with him:

Jaap van Till can be reached at:   vantill   (at)  gmail   (dot)   com     and most of his recent blogs are at TheConnectivist.wordpress.com

4. What drives him:

Two essays which long before 2008 forcasted that major transitions where ahead that would bring a deep recession. Some things would suddenly stop and other things would suddenly start to grow totally unexpected. AND they explained what must be done to get out of the structural resssion. These are the exponential and viral things Jaap van Till and others try to get fired up. These two essays are: a. http://www.johnseelybrown.com/bigshiftwhyitmatters.pdf b. http://www.carlotaperez.org/pubs?s=tf&l=en&a=technologicalrevolutionsandfinancialcapital

5. Where

Jaap is located in The Netherlands, Europe

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(NP10) Geo-Social app: Yik Yak

Yikyak blog

In my series on New Power (NP) I would like to draw your attention to Yik Yak, an app which very popular right now on high schools, colleges and universities. But it is not uncontroversial, some of the school boards are so annoyed by negative gossip and badmouthing messages that they have banned it from their premises, which is possible since it only works for people present within a certain area. I wonder if it will be understood that swarming for positive constructive causes can also be achieved, supporting the local community and the global interest groups through Peek.

Jaap van Till, TheConnectivist

=========================Reblogged from a post by  “Len”  ====

Recently, I noticed Yik Yak’s Peek feature had been updated. You can now “peek” anywhere in the world. I think there is a very good chance that we could all look back on this as the most important thing to happen in social media in 2014. Here’s why.

If you aren’t familiar with Yik Yak, it is like an anonymous geo-social Twitter. Instead of posting tweets, users post yaks. You must be in about a 1.5mi radius of a Yak to engage with it. Engaging with a yak could be upvoting it, downvoting it, or replying to it. You can now “peek” on yaks; this means you can see yaks in any part of the world.

Before I went to bed last night I wrote about using Yik Yak on Black Friday (or Yak Friday shopping). It was a short Thanksgiving article as I was tripping on tryptophan. Before I went to sleep I decided to “Peek” on a few things. First, I wondered, what are people in Raleigh, North Carolina using Yik Yak for? Meh, a couple of kids partaking in activities that might make them crave cheese doodles. How about in Apex, NC, the area where I was just shopping? Nothing really, I had the most popular post, along with some other yakker who said it is now ok to get the Christmas decorations out since Thanksgiving was over (agreed). Hmmm, what was going on in Ferguson Missouri? I have been getting some of my news on Twitter lately and also watching#Ferguson on Twitter. Unfortunately, the majority of Yakkers in Ferguson were posting some pretty nasty things. The most upvoted post in the last 48hrs was “There is no point to Yik Yak once you leave college”. When I awoke this morning I realized just how incorrect that statement was.

yik yak ferguson 11-28-2014

Yik Yak and Yik Yak’s Peek feature could become extremely important. In a recent interview,Q&A: How Yik Yak wants to weed out abuse and become the next Twitter, Yik Yak CEO Tyler Droll says “Imagine there’s newsworthy events happening somewhere in the world, and the whole world is using Yik Yak to look in while it’s unfolding.” This could be huge.

It is no secret that most successful social media platforms start off on college campuses. That is how Yik Yak got its start. Unfortunately, many people think it is useless outside of campus. Indeed, it did start off as a place to build Yakarma via posting funny yaks. And, people do post threats to Yik Yak. But, people are indeed loading up the app when there is an incentive for them to do so, such as finding deals on Black Friday, and the more users there are on Yik Yak the more self-policing it will become. To discover people yakking outside of college campuses, just take a “Peek” at yaks in major cities.

Will Yik Yak become a source of news? This is the exact goal Yik Yak creators Tyler Droll and Brooks Buffington have in mind for the social app. In a recent Q&A Droll said the two hope that Yik Yak, which is now mainly just in the U.S. but can be used anywhere, becomes more global and can be used on a global scale amid international incidents as a communication means. This could also keep social media marketers and advertising out of streams people’s streams and prevent them from jumping on current trends.

If Yik Yak succeeds in becoming a news source, there is no doubt in my mind that Yik Yak will become a big part of the future of the web and that this brilliant new feature may very well be the most important thing to happen in social media in 2014.

Peek could be the peak of 2014

Len

President at Telapost
Len is the Chief Content Creator at Telapost. His journey online began in the 1980s. If he’s not online he is with his family, German Shepherds, or exploring the wilderness.
============================================end of reblog=======================
Yil Yak foto
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Critical Mass = ONE : You and Your Disruptive & Viral Idea !!!

idee-gloeilamp-31471868

((update May 7, PS.1 and 2))

1. A common misconception about innovation is that it will only take off beyond a certain number (critical mass) of users/ clients. Image: an airplane taking off from an airfield, it must first gather speed before the wings get enough ‘lift”. Others talk about the ‘tipping point‘ beyond which an innovation starts to spread. These concepts are borrowed from nuclear physics where beyond a certain threshold amount of a substance it can start a chain reaction, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_mass_(sociodynamics) .

2. This notion is very well established and is often used by innovators to convince venture capital providers to continue funding a project during rollout because “the critical mass is nearly reached”. “We are just before the hockey stick bend in the curve”. Charming but untrue IMHO. There IS no sudden bend in the curve. That is only perception and clever use of graphic diagrams.

3. What happens in real life is that a very good idea/product/service is adopted when seen by other people like a virus they catch. And which they transmit (show) to several other people. The strength of a virus is not depending on the amount of people who have it but on its virality/ catchiness/ attractiveness.

Good ideas are not sold but are absorbed/adopted by users depending on their virality, and that can be measured from day one when it is made public.

Viral ideas grow in an exponential way, which means the spreading has an fixed doubling time. Note: you can P2P “infect” several people, etc. with your enthousism about this new thing, but the curve can be calculated back to doubling.

So to show you how this works, I list the doubling development in time:

1

2

4

8

16

32

64

128  (try this on your calculator app: 1 X 2  click on the = button)

256

512

1024

2048

4096

8192

16,384

32,768

65,536

131,072

262,144

524,288

1,048,576

What you may notice in this doubling sequence is:

a. It starts very flat, with slow growth of the amount of adopters. Hence the airfield image. Techno-nerds like me hate this since it is hard to convince digibete managers and others that anything is happening at all. “Such a small success of your invention” your boss will say. We geeks overestimate the impact in this starting phases.

b. After a while the doubling seems to grow through the roof. This is when the managers have to admit that they have underestimated your invention, and competitors will not be able to catch up with your product or service.

c. There is nowhere a bend in the curve. The point is that we tend to perceive growth in straight lines (see example of PS.1). So subconsciously we draw one nearly horizontal line through the “slow curve” of a. and another line nearly vertical through the explosion curve of b.  And where these to imaginary lines meet we think there is the sudden bend/ tipping point. Which is not there. This perception fault can be avoided by using a logarithmic scale for the vertical axis. In the example of PS.1   10, 100, 1000 each having a same distance on the vertical. The result is a straight line in which the real growth can be charted over many orders of magnitude.

So we have only one parameter to measure for the success of an innovation : The Virality (catchiness) which I defined as:  1/ doubling time ; [1/number of days]. And I introduced the W (double U) as the doubling time [days]. So Virality = 1/W .

[Note this definition is different from that of ‘the Viral Coefficient’ about response to invitations for a service, which does not include the TIME it takes to spread]

4. To be honest the curve will start to level off to horizontal after a while when every body who could get the virus had it. In other words, market saturation. This introduces a second parameter which unfortunately can only be measured very late in the curve: the total candidate population. Marketeers seldom quarrel about the virality but they do about estimates of the total user population size. I remember for is instance that for GSM Cell Phones the first rollout networks where built for a small number of company directors in BMW’s or Mercedeses who would ever be able to afford “car phones” as they where called then. Now about 6 of the 7 billion people on this planet use one or more cellphones !!

5. The most successful innovations that do make use of viral spreading are “Disruptive Innovations”, which can overcome obstacles on the rollout by intentional or mental limitations of the projected user size. For example Henry Ford after the invention of his very affordable T-Ford car had to wait ten years and fight a lobby of expensive carmakers like Olsmobile who did protect their market share with patents and not wanted him to make cars too cheap. Ford was a rebel who staged car races and sold the T-Ford to his own factory workers to break through the lobby barrier, see [1]. Yes he was disruptive. There are two kinds of innovation. Sustained innovation makes a certain product-line cheaper and adds performance and function improvements in new releases for the same capive client group. The other kind is Disruptive Innovation. This is generally characterized by:

it works and is implemented by users themselves, DIY, without asking anybody’s permission,

– and it reaches a much bigger and different client group, which grows bottom up,

– the price/performance is much better, although at the start of the innovation quality can be lower. But by doing people learn to improve it fast, resulting in superior products/services. So after a while the vested interest parties (like the expensive car makers) are forced stop their now outdated product line and join the new market.

idee

An example of the critical mass of, well, two: Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak designed and built the Apple One kit and showed it at the Home Brew Computer Club in Silicon Gulch, as they called it for fun. And everybody there who saw it work WANTED ONE. The rest is history. So, young rebel, my advice to you is: develop your bright idea with some clever friends into something you can show to work, and watch people want it and then show it to their friends. Do not wait for state funding and planning, do not wait for greedy venture capital or reluctant bankers who want in on the act. Just start and DO invent.

PS.1 Example of forecasts with straight lines, while in reality it has exponential growth:

Example exponential

PS.2 Sure running a startup can be a rough ride with many ups and downs, which can differ from the doubling chart rose garden of theory, but do have patience and do not let you and your team be stopped by anyone !!!

startup reality

[1]  Market Rebels: How Activists Make or Break Radical Innovations, prof. Hayagreeva Rao

jaap van till, theConnectivist

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What Drives Us To Contribute to Society

Appreciation

Everybody wants to be appreciated by other members of the communities they are part of !!!

It makes you feel valued. And it is nice to do.

Parents often fail to show appreciation to their kids. It is so important for them, do not forget to do that.

jaap van till, theConnectivist

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How a Toronto professor’s research revolutionized artificial intelligence

broodjejaap:

Weavelet sheet

Great ! At last multi layer neural networks for pattern recognition and image correlation is breaking through. http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/04/17/how-a-toronto-professors-research-revolutionized-artificial-intelligence.html

And maybe we can at last learn more about how our mind works (most of that is still a mystery). IMHO we can stay way ahead of machine learning ever overtaking human learning, if we can harness this knowledge to networked GROUP learning and cooperation, by interconnecting people in a neural network structure. A weavelet as shown above, yielding collective intelligence !

Jaap van Till, TheConnectivist

Originally posted on Collective Intelligence:

http://ift.tt/eA8V8J

Artificial intelligence research using neural networks has taken off, with a $400-million boost from Google, in part thanks to Canadian Geoffrey Hinton.

Three summers ago, at the age of 64, Geoffrey Hinton left his home in Toronto’s Annex neighbourhood to become an intern at Google. He received a propeller beanie stitched with the word “Noogler” and attended orientation sessions populated mostly by millennials, who seemed to regard him, in his words, as a “geriatric imbecile.”

Subject: 

from Artificial Intelligence http://ift.tt/1D0eX51

View original

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Persbericht over publicatie van boek “De Verbonden Stad”

Foto boek

persbericht 15-04-2015  (als PDF)      Persbericht De Verbonden Stad  (in WORD format)

DE VERBONDEN STAD: EEN VISIE OP DE TOEKOMST

Oud Raadslid (Amsterdam) en Luud Schimmelpennink kan het niet laten, hij ‘provo’ceert nog steeds. Waar de gewone burger met een paar A4-tjes het recht heeft de gemeenteraad te adresseren, neemt Luud dit recht breed ter hand en stuurt een compleet boek als ‘raadsadres’ aan de gemeenteraad. Het is geen testament, zegt hij, maar wel een samenvatting en uitwerking van allerlei  ideeën over mobiliteit en diversiteit. Hij zegt: “Ik heb me altijd druk gemaakt over de witte fiets en de witkar, maar dat past in breder denken over mobiliteit en wat de functie van een stad is. Individueel openbaar vervoer past daar goed in, de delen-economie komt, met hulp van internet connectivity, steeds meer in zicht. “ Luud heeft, met hulp van een aantal deskundige auteurs, het idee van een ‘verbonden stad’ diepgaand uitgewerkt, waarbij de insteek vooral de mens, de burger, is. “Kunnen we voorbij de smart city kijken, naar wat werkelijk telt? Want techniek is mooi, en ik ben nog steeds bezig met technische concepten zoals een balanssysteem voor deelfietsen en gekoppelde mini-cars, maar het gaat om de mensen, wat willen die en hoeveel techniek kunnen we aan. Er dreigt een scheiding tussen de digitaal vaardigen en de achterblijvers, niet iedereen kan of wil participeren, en de overheid moet daar rekening mee houden.”

Vragen over mobiliteit, diversiteit, ecologie, veiligheid en vrijheid komen dus aan de orde in het boek ‘De Verbonden Stad’ van Luud Schimmelpennink, Jaap van Till, Lucia Lindner en Kyra Kuitert (uitgave Boekencoöperatie Nederland). De stad wordt steeds belangrijker en de zogenaamde smart city trend is wereldwijd aan de orde. Voorbij het implementeren van technologie is de echte stakeholder van de stad de 21-e eeuwse burger. Die kunnen we voorzien van nog meer bandbreedte, nieuwe media, robots, intelligente diensten en materieel comfort, maar wat zijn de echte behoeftes, de echte zorgen van de mens achter al die digitale wonderen.

De functie van de stad verandert, wordt steeds meer contactplatform, waar men elkaar fysiek ontmoet, uitgaat, vertier en winkels zoekt. De smart city gaat daarbij helpen, maar de fysieke ervaring van contact, sport, uitgaan en ‘naar de stad gaan’ mag niet ondergeschikt worden aan de sociale media en cyberspace interactie.

Kunnen we voorbij de techniek kijken naar wat een stad in essentie is, kan bieden en waar op het menselijke niveau de knelpunten liggen. Komen we wel uit met diversiteit, woonruimte-verdeling, inkomensverschillen, de milieuproblemen en wat doen we als er geen werk meer is? De titel maakt duidelijk maakt dat de basis-taak van een stad steeds meer ligt in het contact, in de verbondenheid. Het gaat om onderling contact tussen de burgers, virtueel contact via de sociale media, de netwerken en fysiek contact, ook met de instituties, het vermaak, de markt, de bestuurders en de brede wereld. Daarbij komen de begrippen mobiliteit en diversiteit naar voren, die worden in dit boek vanuit een breed kader belicht. De factoren die daarin meespelen komen aan bod in diverse bijdragen zoals hoe we een gezonde, veilige en ecologische stad kunnen maken, maar ook hoe we omgaan met de culturele diversiteit, hoe technologie en cyberspace kansen en bedreigingen biedt, hoe innovatie werkt. Dat vernieuwing en innovatie vanuit de mensen moet en kan komen wordt wel erkend, maar hoe bereik je dat; het boek geeft daarvoor een kader. Het gaat in op problemen, zoals dat kansarmoede en achterstelling heel nare gevolgen kan hebben zoals radicalisering van minderheden, dat er een digitale kloof dreigt en dat we rekening moeten houden met ander vervoer, andere winkels, en misschien ook andere burgers. Dat vraagt om een visie en een ethisch kader, die tegen het licht gehouden kan worden.

De uitkomst van die visies op wat de stad en vooral de burger van die stad nodig heeft, is een opdracht, een motto, samengevat in het woord doorbloeding. Voorbij termen als integratie, participatie, emancipatie, cohesie en innovatie is de conclusie dat de verbonden stad een organisch geheel is, en dat doorbloeding goed aangeeft waar het om gaat, namelijk om tot in de kleinste onderdeeltjes en op alle niveaus positieve energie te brengen en slechte afvalstoffen af te voeren.

Het boek, een verzameling essays van diverse auteurs, kwam tot stand als een vervolg op de politieke stellingname van de ‘Witte Stad’ partij, die uiteindelijk niet onder die naam meedeed aan de raadsverkiezingen van 2014 in Amsterdam. Luud Schimmelpennink, die onder die naam toen in de raad zat, stimuleerde het denken over wat een stad nodig heeft. Zijn bijdrage en die van de diverse auteurs laten zien dat je ook anders kunt denken over wat nodig is voor de verbonden stad van de toekomst.

Het delen (van hardware, functies, tijd) was voor Luud al vanaf de provo-tijd een strijdkreet, en wordt in dit boek gekoppeld aan de noodzaak en het mechanisme van contact. Dat contact kan op allerlei manieren, in netwerken of door je open te stellen voor de ander, maar draait altijd om verschillen, om diversiteit. Dat is geen angstig begrip, maar de basis voor welvaart, geluk, innovatie en ja, ook van chaos als het grenzen overschrijdt. Het managen van diversiteit is wat uiteindelijk overblijft als kerntaak van de (stedelijke) overheid, maar zien we terug in alle activiteiten in de stad, in de handel, het onderwijs, het wonen en werken. Daar wordt in dit boek indringend naar gekeken, met als uitgangspunt de zorg die de auteurs hebben voor een evenwicht tussen het creatieve, innovatieve en de behoefte aan stabiliteit en welvaart.

Dit boek is zeker geen loflied op de smart city en cyberspace, maar ontkent ook niet de mogelijkheden daarvan die door Amsterdam al met veel inzet worden onderzocht en geïmplementeerd. Het wijst terug naar de kerntaken van de stad, springt enigszins over de directe consequenties van de technologie heen, maar komt uiteindelijk met een heldere strijdkreet. Zorgen voor doorbloeding, zorgen dat naast de techniek en de materiële verworvenheden ook de immateriële verbondenheid iedereen bereikt.

Amsterdam heeft een hart, en dus bloed, laat het stromen!

U kunt een recensie-exemplaar aanvragen, maar de pdf staat op www.share-shop.nl/verbondenstad.pdf  als download. Foto’s op www.share-shop.nl/foto.htm

Informatie: 

Luud Schimmelpennink 0651599426 of 020 6263079 luudsch@gmail.com

Boekencooperatie Nederland  www.boekcoop.nl  (Ewout Storm van Leeuwen 0653849149)

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