3. In the Introduction of the book the reason for this book and for BGP is given:
The internet is “a network of networks”. It’s made up of tens of thousands of largely independent networks, but somehow the users of one network can communicate with the users of any of the other networks. The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is the glue that binds these disparate networks together.
BGP is a routing protocol: its main job is to allow each network to learn which ranges of IP addresses are used where, so packets can flow along the correct route.
However, BGP has a more difficult job to do than other routing protocols. Yes, it has to make the packets reach their destination, but BGP also has to pay attention to the business side: those packets only get to flow over a network link if either the sender or the receiver pays for the privilege.
This book covers the fundamentals of the technical side of BGP, and also looks at the intersection between the technical and business aspects of internet routing.
The book contains 40 configuration examples that readers can try out on their own computer in a “BGP minilab”.
Very much recommended reading 🙂
jaap van till, TheConnectivist and Nerd-Whisperer
*) He lives and works in The Netherlands. I guess his parents named him after the second name of Lenin :-((
Just imagine you where in a city that was suddenly bombarded and you could save yourself by running to a shelter belowground. What would be your most important action? TRYING TO REACH YOUR CHILDREN. Are they alive ?? Are they hurt? Where are they??
This is overriding all other priorities in life. I have understood this from reports of many disasters, crashes etc. Connectivity with mobile phones by voice or internet access is VITAL in situations like in Ukraine right now. Very nasty that Russia is bombarding exactly these infrastructures: telecom, energy, logistics, traffic, water.
There is a volunteer NOG (Network Operators Group) Task Force in Europe called “Keep Ukraine Connected” that send truckloads of network equipment to Ukraine to repair / replace optic fiber backbones and datacom ISP gear for the benefit of the population hiding and on the run. Many cables have been damaged or broken for instance when bridges are destroyed. This repair is done in parallel with the satellite SpaceX stations from Elon Musk that are also vital to keep digital connections running.
Crux is that this NOG task force gathers equipment specificaly requested by Ukrainian ministry and organisations there that keep networks operational. So it is not a gathering of old stuff.
I did meet these volunteers some time ago and they told the audience at the Hackers conference in NL MCH2022.org that the biggest obstacle they did face was the total disbelief of the individual Polish border guards who where suspicious to let the truckloads of electronic equipment pass into Ukraine. The volunteer truck crew has to fill in days of work of forms to get network things vital for the population through.
The Military have very fast and big airlifts into Ukraine for their Army. This humanitairian aid is very difficult but you can hardly underestimate how important it is for people hiding underground to keep in contact with their family in wartime.
I did donate to them and maybe you can do that too !!!
Jaap van Till, TheConnectivist
======== about the situation (end of Oktober 2022) =========
Subject: Broadband in Ukraine
Broadband in Ukraine Keeping The Country Connected In this day and age few of us can imagine life without broadband. In the areas of war and conflict, broadband infrastructure is even more critical, whether for staying informed about the latest developments on the front line and locally, keeping in touch with family and friends, and even continuing with running a business, work and education. People of Ukraine are finding this out first hand since their country was invaded by the neighbour at the end of February 2022. The communications infrastructure is also crucial for the country’s defence capabilities and strategic sectors of the economy. The Ukrainian broadband operators are doing what they can to keep the country connected. Read Report Inevitably, the communications infrastructure and power networks have been suffering damage from missile strikes and on the ground battles. Incumbent Ukrtelecom and other network providers are carrying out repair work as quickly as possible to re-connect the networks. When power cuts occur, batteries and autonomous power generators, available at many internet nodes, are used. The backup systems will become even more critical now that about 40% of the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine has been seriously damaged.
Ukrtelecom reported that, as of early June 2022, they recorded 175 damaged buildings and sites, 34 of which were completely destroyed. In addition, there have been hundreds of incidents where backbone and access networks were damaged. Another large ISP Volia-Datagroup reported that since February 2022, their technicians have repaired more than 40,000 instances of damage to the network, most of which were directly related to combat operations.Repair works have been going even in active combat zones, where engineers face unprecedented conditions. The operators’ emergency recovery crews work on a daily basis, with engineers monitoring equipment after emergency power outages to prevent service interruptions. For example, just during the last week of July, access to services was restored in settlements of Donetsk, Lviv, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhya, Odesa and Kharkiv regions.As of mid-October 2022, Ukrtelecom reported that their services were provided in all regions, except Luhansk, Kherson, and parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Internet services were available in 87% of Ukrainian settlements covered by the operator’s network. This included the settlements in Kharkiv region liberated by Ukrainian forces earlier in the autumn. In the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, the operator managed to keep the networks operating at 55% and 20% of the pre-war coverage, respectively (June 2022).https://www.president.gov.ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-zustrivsya-z-yevrokomisarom-z-pitan-ener-78841
Since the beginning of invasion, my colleagues have managed to maintain the availability of communication in 87% of the population centres covered by our network. This means hundreds of repair works in difficult and extremely difficult conditions, dozens of repelled cyberattacks, implementation of new technological and IT solutions for the permanent provision of communications to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, social facilities, critical infrastructure facilities and hundreds of thousands of private customers. Unfortunately, a terrible price has been paid for this. Five of our employees were killed, several were injured, we have no permanent contact with dozens, and more than a thousand colleagues became forced migrants.
Yuriy Kurmaz, Director General of Ukrtelecom People accessing internet in one of the bomb shelters in Ukraine. Source: Datagroup.ua. Read Report
The German language book GRM, which i refered to in earlier blogs, by Sibylle Berg has been translated into English. Very relevant in these Post-Apocalyptic times to see what young people are doing. VERY MUCH RECOMMENDED to Read it.
According to Wikipedia “Sibylles” where young Princesses that where allowed to act as ORACLES at courts of kings in ancient times. Nomen et omen. I think miss Berg did something quite extraordinary, describing what happens in England with the huge poverty, we not often hear about, there caused by the Tories and other Ego-tripping greedy persons.
Jaap van Till, The Connectivist
The first English translation of iconic Swiss-German novelist Sibylle Berg—a ruthless indictment of contemporary society and a strikingly creative manifesto for rebellion.
Rochdale is a town in post-industrial Britain, but it could be anywhere on the digitalized, environmentally-decimated planet: a place devoid of hope, where poverty, violence, and squalor are the near-future consequences of decisions being made at this very moment. Grime is the dazzling multi-voice story of four teenagers haphazardly brought together by individual tragedy and a collective love of grime, the music genre that replaced punk as the sound of the angry and the dispossessed: martial-arts-obsessed Don(atella); Peter, a traumatized Polish boy; Karen, a tech-savvy girl with albinism; and Hannah, an orphan from Liverpool. Despite the increasingly sophisticated workings of an authoritarian surveillance state, the four set out to exact revenge on the people they hold responsible for their misery. But what starts out as a teen hit squad evolves into a makeshift family as the four kids attempt to create a home on the fringes – both physically and mentally – of society.
In this stylistically innovative epic, acclaimed novelist Sibylle Berg addresses the question currently being debated around the world: where will climate change, artificial intelligence, the rise of right-wing populism, and the inexorable expansion of surveillance lead? This masterful dystopian satire is a merciless and surgically-precise evisceration of neoliberalism, and beneath its rage and brutality beats a deeply human heart.
Grime spent 25 weeks on European bestseller lists and won the Swiss Book Prize.
I did PREorder it from Amazon, but to my supprise it will be launched: December 20, 2022. Why this huge delay?? Lack of paper or ink ?? Did Johnson complain ? Fortunately I did read the German language version. Dynamite!!!
In The News
“A book like an explosive device.” — Die Zeit
“Watch out, this book bites…an icepick-sharp social commentary.” —Tages-Anzeiger
“Combines apocalyptic entertainment with magical indignation about the state of the world.” —Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
On the recent huge hackers camp I was invited, on July 23 2022 in Zeewolde near Amsterdam, to give a 10 MINUTES “Lightning Talk” about our future. Rather difficult for me since i suffer from “Memory of the Future syndrome”. I already know but not many people want to know about things they do not expect. On the other hand, pilots are trained in simulators to cope with situations that are unlikely and that they may not like. But that is not the point: pilots and competent managers, must know what TO DO in a few seconds/minutes after such situations happen.
Below is the video recording of that (my speech starts at 18:30 – you can control that on the lower part of the screen below) and you can see below the outline of my prepared text.
If you want me to come and explain in more depth, you can invite me to come and lecture/ train you at your site, to motivate young geeks, nerds and other autistic Harry’s and Hermione’s to build our collective future in a positive direction. As Greta Thunberg has shown, young people ARE interested in what will happen and how we together might influence that, instead of listening as slaves to what the businessmen of the WEF dictate or what the Russian oligarchs want us to believe.
Here is the text I had prepared that day :
============== The Liebig Law Method #LLM To Build Networks
By Jaap van Till, theConnectivist
Caused by massive interconnection of everything we have built complexity which can NOT be centraly controled anymore in nations. We are faced worldwide with a number of crises: energy, climate, migration, etc etc.
Since hackers know what they talk about, learn fast together and get things working, it can be expected that they will do very positive things. After the Apocalypse. With more power.
How? By the Liebig Law Method. Network improvement by removing obstacles, bypassing and tunneling. Constructing worldwide collective intelligence with decentral authority to act.
You have permission to help build the Global Brain with > 10^10 CONNECTED People. ================
And below I show the same text but then expanded with supporting material and links to recent relevant publications.
========================== Text of Lightning Talk========
(Pictures, references, text in red = added later)
The Liebig Law Method To Build Networks
By Jaap van Till, theConnectivist
Caused by massive interconnection of everything we have built complexity which can NOT be centraly controled anymore by nation states.
Authoritarian leaders of nation states react to this complexity with panic and unsuccesful attempts to control everything with surveillance systems, tracking huge bureacratic computer systems, while they run into the brick walls of Ashby’s Law (the computer Model they use must be at least as complex as the part of Reality they try to control). Since this is overambitious their measures often do not work even with the help of huge computer systems or they make situations even worse by attaining the reverse of what was aimed. Gathering data is also fed by financial hunger to extract value from the privacy of individuals for the benefit of advertisers or target voters with propaganda. The dangerous road these controlaholics sometimes take is that instead of lowering their ambitions to smaller segments of reality, they start to simplify Reality (can be seen from the forms i have to fill in, my answers are often not in the multiple choices you can make) or even more lethal by arresting and ‘processing’ people (foreigners, artists, Jews, Gypsies, gays, migrants, coloreds) and closing borders for imigrants. And in such dictatorships careers are made not by the most competents, but by those most loyal to the leader.
We are faced worldwide with a number of crises: energy, climate, migration, WWIII etc. etc.
And multiple Transitions ( all part of a Zeitenwende) are happening in all societies of the world as forecasted and announced by prophets, see the list in  and . For instance the change from electronics to photonics & fiber optics over decades is hardly noticable to the general public but result in vast and unstoppable impacts. These transitions are characterized by a number of subsequent distinct wealth surges (golden ages, described by Carlote Perez) when new value is created, enabled by bold new use of general purpose technologies.
The value creation (as successor to the failing neo-liberal / capitalist value extraction at the expense of enslaved people and natural resources) is driven by the ICT Networking Effects  enabling Synthesis (combinations of diversity and specialisation) resulting in Synergy.
Where? Not only will the future show sudden surges, also these will be geographicaly non-uniform. Urbanization is already visible in several scales. From small villages to huge city-areas like Hong Kong and Mumbai. Such “urban/city-areas” will replace the function of nation states, as introduced by prof. Ulrike Guerot, as next step for the EU. An interesting example will be the multi circular “city-area” of #EuroDelta, consisting of [Flanders & Nordrhein-Westfalen & The Netherlands], all sharing the cultural background of mangrove marches of three rivers where the sea will come in due to the fluctuating climate changes. A logic next step to make combinations of specialists is to form chains of such city areas so people can travel and do commerce (modern day Hanse cities) from Dublin to Shanghai as I prognosed the Eurasian Backbone would form, called #Corridoria . Along the Rhine and Danube and then through Turkey and Iran following one of the new Silk Routes into China, (Belt and Road Initiative now under construction). Vital high availability infrastructure will be the merging  of [the Digital Infrastructure & Smart Energy Transport & rail and road Transport for people, food and goods]  and . These merged logistics of info, energy and food are also present in our body and in forrests. On the West coast of North- and South- America a similar city-area chain + infrastructures will develop, called #Cascadia .
From (I) the present ICT based Apocalypse (Digitalisation) we will move in time to
(II) Circular Economies
and then to (III) an era of Regeneration of Nature including humans (if we are lucky), see Monbiot in the  “Regenesis” book.
To summarize: “What comes NEXT” . Alexandre Lemille (University of Lille) has give a schematic answer to that:
Lemille’s comment on the above graph is as follows: “Within one schematic you can visualise how one can preserve human life on Earth by aligning ourselves with regenerative adaptation strategies.
Adding current and upcoming economic models as well as future regenerative ones ((synergy!!)) shows the clear path towards more value ((Mazzucato)) for societies – among other communities of species – thanks to a better understanding of living systems.
The move within the ecosystem rules, where Humans consider themselves as ‘circular beings’ in a deeply empathic life model (or models), is here very obvious”
The posting of Lemille is based on a graph by Bill Reed (2007). My point is that the middle of the three circles: Circular Economy, overlap with the Learning Curve of ICT Golden Age (I). We are halfway into that, as propoposed by Carlota Perez.
I. LINEAR ECONOMY (only economics matter) -Polluting & Abusive Societies- Degenerating Systems (value extraction at the expense of nature or a large group of workers). NeoLib mindset & govt policies.
II. CIRCULAR ECONOMY (Economics remains essential) Recycling & Consuming Societies *** We are halfway here, Nearly everybody is working on a computer screen and on the smartphone all day and night. ICT is the Core Technology in this age. “Digitalisation” of companies and organisations is the most urgent to survive and create jobs. Central stearing of the agnostic futureproof Digital Infrastructure (see my blog about Internet Worldwide Links) and ICT Education and Building of the Transport Infrastructures and Energy Infrastructures for and between City Regions (Smart Cities) must have top long term priorities. (creation of value by INTERCONNECTING and combining contributions from people with diverse skills and backgrounds, so Synergy is created. Horizontal P2P communiction. Optic Fiber infra. FttHome. Digital Democracy. fast response to instabilities. The five Network Effects (see my blogs about those). SYNERGY. Redgrid.io – Australia: O.S. for the DECENTRAL Energy Grids based on HoloChain. RE-definition and implementation of Democracy. Rejection of Fascism. Truth and respect supported by ‘Social Super Resolution’ (#SSR). Collective Intelligence & Distributed Authority. Value Creation Structure.
III. (restorative and inclusive societies –> REGENERATIVE LIFE MODELS (Ecosystemic rules take over, see Monbiot’s book )–> Regenerating Systems –> Symbiotic & Valued Societies –> regenerative & caring for all Life species. Work on these is starting up to value Life forces and learn from it to be part of Nature and evolve according to its laws. Swarms, collective intelligence of tribes and cities, with DISTRIBUTED authority in constant communication. Holographic fractal structures which can handle patterns and complexity in a very fast way. The quality of the capillaries define the health of the total swarm/tribe/body + the qualty of the external links to the environtment. Governance by Liebigs Law, unplugging obstructions like in the Suez Canal ! #GlobalBrain
Who? Since hackers know what they talk about, learn fast together and get things working, it can be expected that they will do very positive things. After the Apocalypse (=Time of Revelations, Now). Networking with more power in groups [Sibylle Berg: 7a , 7b]
How? By the Liebig Law Method #LLM. Network improvement by removing obstacles, bypassing and tunneling. This approach can cope with complexity .
Engineers and hackers applying this Method can resort to staying humble but focused and effective. Humility also shows that you respect imperfection and incompleteness & are willing to learn and improve. The #LLM states that growth is dictated not by the total resources available, but by ONE: the scarcest resource (limiting factor). The law has also been applied to biological populations and ecosystem models for factors such as sunlight or mineral nutrients. There should be a warning here: if that one scarce resource is removed as limiting (by making it more abundant) another factor will take over as limiting the whole yield (non-linear = difficult to comprehend for politicians). Example: the car in front of a traffic congestion. Second warning: the scarce resource can be very local, which is relevant for micro-agriculture: GPS + sensor steered fertiliser dispensing.
Constructing (IV) worldwide “collective intelligence with decentral authority to act”.
Collective intelligence is the process by which a large group of individuals gather/ interconnect and share their knowledge, data and skills for the purpose of solving societal issues and/or create value , see also the Wikipedia defintion and the issues that are faced: swarms, group mind and a number of other names. And it can apply to massive amounts of people and/or devices that can only be coordinated/ controlled in a decentral way. That makes it less vulnerable, faster responding and repairs its-self by plasticity, like the brain does. My point is that I see development of such ways of organizing people in non-hierarchical ways making use of AI and interconnecting and P2P collaborating in such a way that central coordination (management) is much less needed, since everybody gets (or can get) overviews of the total situation in which they participate. These shared overviews are replicated in a way similar to holograms (even a small fraction contains the essentials of the total picture). Hierarchies could not do that. With computer network support now we can. Such Groups often appear from teams consisting of SPECIALIST who are best at a certain skill or knowledge who join people who are driven with an obsession to learn and improve their own complementary specialty by their ability to listen and learn from others and who can contribute by observing the problem at hand from a different angle and background. One of the most spectacular of such Teams is #Bellingcat, an NL/UK team of open source journalists who check PR and propaganda statements and films from governments who create fakenews, see “Truth in a post-truth world“. PS: IMHO their home grown computer supported method is a kind of “super resolution” process combining many images and pictures from many sources, by extrapolating a shared FFT spectrum.
Point is that the local participants & contributers must be able to act and do things in their local context, which will differ from what others in the collective experience. That means de-central authority is allowed but all others can look in to what is done in other places in real time. This makes such Group a kind of organism its-self with distributed and de-centraly shared Models (holograms) which is replicated and which can scale up. So such Groups CAN cope with complexity and learn constantly from what they do together in a kind of virtual “COMMONS” based on shown abilities, respect and trust. And yes, decisions are made on the basis of informed concensus like in a DEMOCRACY. See Michel Bauwenshttps://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Michel_Bauwens/Full_Bio
One of the most successful groups who do this collective intelligence is the BetaCodex network who make explicit the third network of Knowledge Workers and Innovators in companies. Those people who drive value creation and change, in a kind of informal third network in companies, exactly what I consider the “collective intelligence group with decentral authority”, see the white papers of  , follow @BetaCodex_INTL community on Twitter and follow its driver on Twitter:
Upscaling from Teams, Companies it is important to notice the success of Networked Organizations. These are Value Chains of the BEST companies in the world who supply eachother with the best possible components to be assembled by the next aggregator in the chain. An example is the IC design and manufacture chain where ASML is part of see my blog about that . Less well perceived and understood is that such worldwide networked organizations are tightly interconnected collective intelligences with decentral authority (each to be and stay the best suppliers in the chain).
In this regard it is interesting to notice what children nowadays like most: gaming with remote friends and doing “things” online ALL DAY. Even in the tents on holiday they lay horizontal with their smartphone in front of them. When I was that age we where looking for frogs in the woods now they are looking for WiFi and power sockets, wherever they are. Their parents are not amused by this and ask them to go outside and play, which they do: sit outside and watch their little screens.
When i was a kid we loved to read & watch “comic books”, which our parents did not understand and could not percieve: pictures instead of texts? I had even a comic called Hamlet, from Shakespeare :-). Teachers did not allow comic books in school. What we loved and shared were in fact not picture books but “graphic novels”, best ones from Belgium and France. Little film scripts images, with all the imagination and convention of action films. Now the children are hooked on real films. On TikTok and moving selfies on Instagram and Telegram. And the kids build decentral collective intelligent communities around those shared films using their mobile smartphones and tablets.
The next phase after “collective intelligence communities” is (V) Community Brain Building
You have permission to help build (V) the Global Brain  with > 10^10 interCONNECTED People. 
That phase starts with the realisation that “collective INTELLIGENT communities” can best be built by looking more closely at how the human BRAIN is built, most of it still a mystery. Its functions can be recognized as a parallel structure analysing and manipulating 2D and 3D images coming from the eyes and then acting upon that information (most of the brain is busy with that. Another part analyses and manipulate language, semoitics = meaning, speech, texts (from the ears, in a serial structure).
In a simplified way that mental image manipulation can be modeled as a real time loop :
Communities of people are in this phase constructed as connected brains, and inside brains we are discovering structures that are also connected as layers of lens-like constructions (every point connected to every other point) see the exiting views of Jeff Hawkins .
If we look how the brain is built in a baby during pregnancy we can map that on how communities on this planet might be building up & structured in this phase V.
The human brain is by far the most complex organ that nature has ever produced: 100 billion nerve cells (neurons) in our scull and nervous system each connected with an Axon to hundreds of other neurons by synapses. The links a carry analog signals in the shape of binary pulse trains with variable repetition rate (sequency).
Human brains are a miracle : 3 phases.
a. Just after conception (fertilisation of an human egg) braincells are constructed at a baffling speed. It is a massive explosion of the growth of number of neurons (complex nerve cells) in brain and spine, while swimming in the womb of the mother; starting eight weeks after conception, increasing by many millions each hour.
b. After five weeks this process slows down. The stage of proliferation of neurons in the brain is completed, with about hundred billion cells; that each starting to make connections. Some to nearby nervecells some all the way to the other side of the brain. Until now we did not know according to what plan or procedure. Now (August 2022) we know from the article of Kerstjens : connection is in relation to“family ties” (*) / tribal (strong links in sociology) as the DNA adress book states.
c. After birth the baby wakes up and becomes aware and consious and starts LEARNING fast using the prewiring of b. The first 2 years are crucial for that since certain brain links are stimulated and get more connected and others which are not used (fired with pulse trains) die and get absorbed to build new cells. ‘Edited’ you can say. By the time of birth, a typical nerve cell may communicate directly with several thousand other cells. And the growth of connections continues after birth. 75 % of connections for the babybrain still have to be made after birth and grows 350 gram to 1500 gram with this proliferation of connections. Mainly under influence of the signaling functions of the brain and the incoming information from the different senses. And (self) consiousness, social interactions and learning starts at a impressive pace the first 2 years of childhood and onwards. By the time of adulthood many human nerve cells are making direct connections with as many as a quarter of a million other cells.
PS it turns out that phases 1, 2, and 3 do not stop at a certain age, as was previously thought, but go on although less strong while aging, called PLASTICITY. The structure is parallel and massively redundant, which makes brains of humans very resilient and self-organising.
The Global Brain metaphore, see  maps this brain growth on human communities. Similar trends can be observed in human society on this planet. For the last couple of centuries the number (a) of ‘cells’ (humans) in the embryonic global brain has been proliferating, to about 8 billion people. But the last decades population growth is slowing down and will reach about 10^10 = 10 billion (!) people in 2025 (?) depending on a number of uncertain factors. But it is also moving into the next phase — the linking (b) of the billions of human minds into 1 single network. In 2016 there where about 10 billion cell phones sold and about 5 billion people connected to the internet with fixed links or wireless. This looks like a planetary nervous system for a Global Brain that is starting to function, including with memory for knowledge, search engines for pattern recognition and other brainfunctions. Will Gaia wake up (c) about now as a baby, and will it become self conscious? Will we notice that as just nerve cells of a awakening global brain? I hope to live to see it happen and maybe you will notice it too when it happens. 10 billion interconnected people with smartphones, tablets and laptops with Wifi and optic fibers: THAT is the threshold of MY prophecy.
The 10 billion number (10^10) of people (now in 2022 8 billion= 8* 10^9) is a threshold that is approaching. A threshold paleontologue and Jesuit priest Pierre Teilhard de Chardin also has forecasted as a step in evolution (point Omega) that all of Nature would be merged into one being: Gaia. It is not 500 Million as the statue in Georgia of the Oligarchs insisted on. Peter Russell found in his book, see  that after the Big Bang the millions of years of evolution on Earth can be characterized by a number of sudden transitions: evolutionary leaps where many diverse components combined (interconnected) into a new more complex synergistic entity and platform. For instance atoms –> molecules—>life platforms: cells–> tissues, organs—> bacteria—> animals—> selfconscious humans–> agricultural soc–>industrial soc–> network society.
(*) I wonder if neuron links are also made by way of “weak links“( i called those “Btwieners” in a population). The inter-tribe links account for stability ! A kind of Gandalf figures 🙂 My friend prof Csermely from Hungary wrote a book called “Weak Links” about such ‘connectors’,which appear to function all over nature. *** I will ask Stan Kerstjens ETH Zurich if they have noticed weak links (trans family ties) at work too.***
Please notice that Nature is fractal and Life survives by self-copying cooperation and communities. Forests survive in a similar way using vast subsoil networks, anthills using smell tracs with simple codes, bacteria cultures of hundreds of billions connected in a small space, flocks of birds and schools of fish are much more safe flying / swimming together while in constant connection together.
Phase(VI): Gaia becomes alive and conscious. And will start connecting with other planets. That is what Vinton Cerf and Elon Musk are working on……..
Society does not move in a continuous process with changes or “from A to B” as many gurus want you to believe. We can now recognize five distinct Wealth Surges & golden ages in History with techno-economic shifts DISCONTINUOUS between them, and each with an all pervasive dominant and group confirmed mindset as described by prof. Carlota Perez, University College London:
The Industrial Revolution
Age of steam & railways
Steel & heavy engineering
Age of fossil fuels Oil, Chemo-Mechanics, Automobiles and mass production. Value extraction
(I) The age of ICT, Digitalization,Telecom networks and Internet (now). Network effects, Value creation by synthesis and synergy
[7a, 7b] Two books bestselling in the German language (will be translated into English this year) by Swiss author Sibylle Berg. The first “GRM” describes what neglected children in England are doing to survive poverty, failing parents and failing public assistance services. The second one “RCE” forecasts what groups of geeks and nerds will do all over the world to use their network power. This supports my prophesy for the Hackers at the MCH2022.org camp.
It may be no coincidence that her first name is Sibylle: princesses called like that where prophetesses or oracles in Ancient Greece
Many “unexpected” worldwide and life threatening crises are happening at the same time:
*Climate Change (with wide changes in temperatures and wind), *Famines caused by food shortages, Energy Crisis, Elites failing, trust in science decline, decreasing biodiversity, corruption, The Health services crisis, housing shortages, Internet crashes, Cyber war, Financial crises, *nitrogen and NO3 crisis (from cattle), *CO2 crisis, *disappearing birds and insects, *Water shortages, NeoLiberal-capitalitic mantras (based on extracting value at expense of people and nature) not working anymore, Decline in UK and USA, Collapse of Russia and China, *collapse of the Australian ecosystems. None of these complex and interconnected issues seem to be solved in the short or long time while most people know what is happening.
Especially young people on his planet are getting very concerned for their future and about what to choose as education and work. This may help them. In my next Blog I will outline a line of thought and “actions after the Apocalypse”. Most of the material for that blog I have collected from a number of apocalyptic revelations of “Apostles” known to me and in connection. And surprisingly enough most of them are relatively unknown to the general public. The only reason for that i can imagine is that positive, constructive views and stories are not good material for attention grabbing memes the press and media (and therefore the politicians) love so much.
I picked out one of those revelations from apostle George Monbiot (Twitter: @GeorgeMonbiot) since getting what he says and writes can not wait since for instance the grain shortage due to the invasion of Ukraine and the grain crop failure in India may cost the life of hundreds of thousands of people and will damage millions of children for life. That are Memes, right !!! And Georges book affects at least 6 of the above mentioned crises, marked with an *.
What we can do about those is described in his recently published book:
George Monbiot “REGENESIS” -Feeding The World Without Devouring The Planet- ; published by Allen Lane (26 May 2022)
1. You can get a very good summary of his book when you take about 30 minutes to view this video on Youtube:
Monbiot’s comment on this video is: ” I doubt 1 in 100 people fully grasps the scale of the global food emergency we’re facing, the deep reasons why it has been building since 2015, and what’s needed to fix it. I seek to explain it as concisely as possible, in 30 mins. I beg you to watch it.
2. One of the reader reactions is : Just finished reading Regenesis by George Monbiot – a brilliant book. So well researched. Rips apart our current agicultural system methodically and convincingly. A sobering read for sure but full of hope too. Made me feel, for the first time in a while that all is not lost.
3. I can fully imagine that Farmers and their whole value chains of farmfood importers, the four huge food conglomerates, butchers and meat shops will be not amused by this ‘revelations’. In The Netherlands cattle farmers (Boze Boeren) have demonstrated and blocked highways with their tractors recently protesting the *nitrogen production measures declared by our Agricultural Minister and backed by the EU. I urge them to read this book and prepare for intelligent transitions to introduce more diverse cattle-less food production in parallel with meat asap. Famines are a higher priority than cattle.
4. Interestingly the focus of farming and crop yield is shanging at the same time to what happens SUB-SOIL : Soil Ecology Especially in India and Africa widespread experiments. Subsoil knowledge is avilable very widespread and is very well established at the Wageningen University and Research institutes WUR in he Netherlands.
5. To put this “revelation” into context we can now recognize five Wealth Surges & golden ages in History with techno-economic shifts between them as described by prof. Carlota Perez, University College London:
The Industrial Revolution
Age of steam & railways
Steel & heavy engineering
Age of Oil, Chemo-Mechanics, Automobiles and mass production
The age of ICT, Telecom networks and Internet (now). Network effects, synergy
Next will be:
6. Circular Economy, Biotech, Nanotech, repair, re-use 7. Regeneration of ecologies and 1Planet Nature including humans
So this Regenesis revelation describes and sets into movement the seventh Wealth Surge where many things still have to be discovered. At present prof. Perez is writing a new book describing the above ages with their general purpose technology drivers and the transitions between them which cause uncertainty and crises for many vested interests and stagnant mindsets causing huge conflicts and even wars.
6. And …..young people often want in their life efforts to be part of something bigger than just a future of slavery of a 9 – 5 job. They can when they project their concerns on The Planet and how we can start working to Regenerate Nature and human societies. Gaia is her name. And she will wake up soon.
jaap van till, The Connectivist
PS. ((Added as promised, on August 22, 2022)) Here is another interview with George Monbiot:
This invention is a breaktrough !!! Key is that water can be condensed from humid air, even in the deserts of our planet. Solar power and gravity are used for this prizewinning invention.
Now familiar pattern for serious innovations (see my other blogs): Universities ridiculed mr. Ap Verheggen when he proposed it some years ago. but he and his team made it work with the Sunglacier – produces 1200 liters water a day and the Doppler – 30 liters/ day. A backpack portable version is in preparation.
Now on test sites all over the world.
These machines will be put in production at scale next year (2023).
We have designed a new and highly-efficient technology that produces volumes of clean water from the air, almost anywhere in the world. Our drive to accomplish this comes from the starting point that clean water should be accessible to everyone.
Sunshine, gravity and air – are free to everyone. We apply these elements to their maximum potential (together in a unique way) to contribute to the solution of the earth’s main problem: fresh, clean water availability.
How does it work? We condense water vapor in cold falling water: “the growing waterfall” principle. The volume of the waterdrops grow, as the water falls down. The total volume of the water increases rapidly with this method.
What are the advantages? – The technology is simple and easy to maintain. – Each cubic meter of air entering the system is dehumidified to the maximum possible amount. – This is an energy-friendly method: smaller units are designed to run on solar energy and/or hybrid. – A key advantage of this system is that no water evaporates during the process. – This system can be scaled up easily. – We have greatly expanded the working climate/temperature range of previous conventional dehumidification methods.
Where does this technology work? The SunGlacier system is already in operation when the dew point temperature exceeds 5 Celsius. And on the top of the Dutch pavilion at the Dubai Expo, we have easily produced water in temperatures higher than 50 Celsius. During the first test runs we succeeded to generate 50 liters/hour. (=1200 liters/day) Even in extremely dry and hot conditions, our system produces large volumes of fresh water.
Are other SunGlacier machines already in use?
Dubai 2020 Expo We built a large unit that can harvest hundreds of liters of water per day from the desert air for the Dutch Pavilion in Dubai. The water is used in the pavilion to produce a spectacular rain shower and to grow a variety of plants. The outgoing cold air of the container helps to cool the building.
Droppler 20 We built a small series of mobile units for the Dutch Ministry of Defense which produces an average of 20 liters of water per day. This Droppler 20 series has even managed to extract more than 30 liters of water per day in some locations. These machines are being field tested around the world.
SunGlacier Backpack (in development) What could be better than traveling with a backpack that independently produces drinking water every day – for decades? This concept is still science fiction but hopefully soon will turn into reality! We have already built the world’s smallest water-from-air device, and are still optimizing the technology.
The SunGlacier – water from air – machine is finally installed. First test runs showed a result of 50 liters/hour, which means 1200 liters/day!!!! That number is even beyond our own expectations. The countdown to the opening started (October 1st)
What started as the “Art meets Science” project SunGlacier, resulted in the deliverance of the 2 first Droppler machines to the Dutch Ministry of Defense, partner of the DCHI (Dutch Coalition for Humanitarian Innovation). This innovative technology is able to harvest efficiently water from air in almost all parts of the world. CD&E – The department Concept Development and Experimentation helped us in making a dream come true. Thank you for all support to find a real solution for an urgent climate problem: the lack of clean water.
On holiday I recently discovered that the famous legal/diplomatic scientist Hugo de Groot aka Grotius 1583-1645 is a family member of mine, through links with the Van Haersolte and Van Panthaleon van Eck families.
One of his greatest achievements is his legal document Mare Liberum (De Vrije Zee = The Open Sea) which still has impact on present Sea Law. In it De Groot for the first time developed the concept of a (mondial=) planetary community, from the idea that the sea should be accessible, so communication between tribes of people can be maintained and hose tribes would not prevent each other to reach overseas coasts. In practice he aimed by defining the Sea “open”, beyond an x-mile zone from the coasts, that ships would have a free passage though narrow straights. You should understand that the Pope in Rome had declared before this book that all seas to the west of Rome would be property of Spain and all seas to the east of Rome to be property of the Portugese kingdom. This was not acceptable to the Provinces of The Netherlands who ran the first multinational company: VOC shipping. Bringing goods and people from port A to B without much interest in going inland. Around that time the King of England declared that all seas of the world where property of England. That is why the Mare Liberum was such a breakthrough in legislation. Beyond the x miles off the coast the captain was the only law. Except that he or she had to report to the ships owners (hence their flag) when coming home to declare his/her decisions and show maps of discovered coasts. And not including flag-less pirates, not to be confused with Privateers (Kapers) merchant vessels who had a contract to attack specific enemy ships.
2. Why do I tell you all this? The point is that more and more national governments see that the impact and influence on society, business and politics of Internet is so huge that they have to govern it with national regulations and laws. Despite the fact that these controlaholic public servants do not even know what Internet is and do not know the difference between the ISO-OSI levels of transmission & switching and for instance information services like the WWW, governments compete in their zeal to tame the beast: cybercrime, privacy, cyberwar, AI ethics etc. are turning into complete industries. That is why for instance J.P. Barlow RIP gave his famous lecture in Davos stating simply that “governments have NO JURISDICTION in Cyberspace” since that virtual space resides between the ears of people !
Sure the Internet Society (ISOC.org) and its chapters of able engineers in the construction process of the IETF have defined laws and regulations for things that have to standardised (called requests for comment 🙂 = RFC) worldwide to enable end-to-end communication. All this is based on a number of Network Architectural Rules that must adhered to in order to expand Internet again and again. One of the Fathers of Internet Vinton Cerf has declared several times that these, STILL DEVELOPING rules and regulations, do in fact constitute a modern day Internetum Liberum (The Open Internet) for our present Planetary Community, also known as the Civil Sociey. Maybe a present day Hugo de Groot can be found to write them down in a publishable and understandable (for politicians) form ?
3. It is important to recognize that new PLANETARY patterns are emerging in technology and business that are playing an ever greater role in our lives. You may have noticed that a new hugely successfulvalue chain has developed in our midst, puzzling national politicians and regulators no end. To put it simply; because it is much more complicated, no longer “national” only and evolves and changes daily; that value chain DRIVES LEADING EDGE ELECTRONICS and ICT in the world.
Apple powerful CPU chip design M1, M2 etc (California, USA)
Apple computer manufacturing (in China, Ireland and USA)
Computer distribution and sales. And usage (by people all over the world)
What have these trans-national companies in common? They are the best of the best in their field and employ the most bright and skilled young boys and girls available ( giga nerds , Yes !!!). If you are uncertain where to go after your graduation and are very good at a certain things which gives you satisfaction which can be grown into an obsession…… go talk to one of these companies !!
4. It even goes much deeper. Each of these top class companies has developed into a NETWORK ORGANIZATION.
a. They each have a small group of top class SPECIALISED suppliers. For instance ASML only makes designs and builds an x percentage themselves of the things they put together into very complicated lithography machines. The rest is aquired from the selected specialised suppliers.
b. They maintain extremely high quality standards on what is delivered to them, as well as what they sell.
c. Maintain very strong rules on availability and delivery on promises.
d. co-devellop in opencooperation but with strong enforcement of secrecy to the outside world.
e. Have steep learning curves for all participants, and change & improve at a fast pace. If competitors have copied (parts of) their products and have built factories for mass production of those, they already are going to anounce new deliverable products which are much better in price/performance/energy use.
“Network organizations” are the new trend to be reckoned with. They will spread into society, science and politics sooner than you can imagine, building and enforcing planetary communities, active with creating value for the survival of all of us. They are driven by the 3rd (Reed’s Law; group membership) and 4th (Van Till’s Law; cooperation and collaboration) networking effect, much more powerful than the 1st broadcasting (Sarnoff’s Law) and 2nd (Metcalfe; communication with conversations). The 4th network effect & synergy happens when a network of combinations is made between a diversity of unique contributions. See: https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/np9-engines-for-the-new-power-the-four-network-effects/
5. It should not surprise you that Network Organisations need very high quality Communication Networks in multple countries to operate, and across borders. This is achieved by long distance optical fiber cable network providers. Such fiber cables have been and are rolled out all over the world as Fiber-to-the-home and FiberTTBusiness digital infrastructures and by way of Internet Exchanges in big cities and Cloud Computer hyperscale processing and datastorage centers. These digital infrastructures are driven by a Dark Fiber (Fibre) Market. Reason when optic fiber cables are installed in trences / ducts/ overhead it makes sense to use cables with many (for instance 92) fibers to have room for future connections. So there are either no fibers available or an abundance from A to B. In that case cable link providers are often willing to lease dark cable pairs (under a IRU rule: Irrefutable Right of Use) to other network companies or for instance university networks for a lower fee.
This is also an area which is booming, where new jobs are created and vast improvements are made by clever young engineers. This field is in a transition from electronic networks –> optic networks which started 40 years ago with the invention of fiber optic cables. All over the ICT field moves are made to replace electrons with photons, which is just gathering light ! Hugo de Groot rules OK ?!
6. Establishing and nurturing EXTERNAL connections and relations should be recognized as vital to survive. Not many people know or want to recognize that a very large part of our culture was developed by discussions between top scientists & court wizzards from Asia, India, Europe, Egypt, Persia gathering together in Central Asia in 800 until the 12th Century. They took long leaves and sabbaticals from the courts of their own kings, under the pretext of having to learn from their collegues top scientists how better to forecast from the observed stars the best days for attaque of the kings armies. See “Lost Enlightenment” – Central Asia’s Golden Age; from the Arab Conquest to Tamerlane; S. Frederick Starr.
Lost Enlightenment recounts how, between the years 800 and 1200, Central Asia led the world in trade and economic development, the size and sophistication of its cities, the refinement of its arts, and, above all, in the advancement of knowledge in many fields. Central Asians achieved signal breakthroughs in astronomy, mathematics, geology, medicine, chemistry, music, social science, philosophy, and theology, among other subjects. They gave algebra its name, calculated the earth’s diameter with unprecedented precision, wrote the books that later defined European medicine, and penned some of the world’s greatest poetry. One scholar, working in Afghanistan, even predicted the existence of North and South America―five centuries before Columbus. Rarely in history has a more impressive group of polymaths appeared at one place and time. No wonder that their writings influenced European culture from the time of St. Thomas Aquinas down to the scientific revolution, and had a similarly deep impact in India and much of Asia.
If we want to restart Enlightenment in our day and age I recommend that we start working from the driving forces and synergy of the above mentioned networks on every level which activity i call “CONNEXIO LIBERUM” which is contagious and fruitful for all connected and cooperating participants.
In ICT I forecast a next wave/learning curve based on applications on top of a layer of linked & distributed computers with the help of HoloChain software. For instance RedGrid.io in Australia built a user-side devices grid of appliances that can stabilise the local fluctuations of Solar & Wind renewable energy. Including a user – supplier accounting & billing system. Yes, with cars as batteries.
Jaap van Till, TheConnectivist
PS The “network organization” model also applies to groups/teams within the successful companies. The participants (young engineers etc) are the best of the best. You can compare these teams with for instance world class football (socker) teams. You may have noticed that these are formally national or large city teams but the best specialized players are hired from all over the world irrespective of their place of birth or shoe size, as long as they are the “best of the best” AND can play together as a team. Also the spectators are no longer purely geographical bounded to enforce their cultural identity. Members of the Ajax spectator club are no longer found only in Amsterdam. They are networked too !! Trans-(mental / physical) borders.
Ivan Marovic has writen a guide on how to organize a non-violent movement which can lead to improvements in the Civil Society. This guide has been used successfuly in a number of countries, and improved every time based on what was done, to resist authoritarian/ fascist regimes and dictators.
Its origins can be traced back to the book of former general Gene Sharp “From Dictatorship to Democracy” FDTD, Einstein Institute. See Wikipedia and http://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FDTD.pdf . Warning: regimes have also read FDTD. For instance activists in Iran have been sentenced by verdicts saying “you used method x from FDTD”. So you better be creative and surprising. Audace, Audace!
2. Here is the link to the guide that you can use to download the Guide. It is also published as a book and as a Kindle file: The Path of Most Resistance: A Step-by-Step Guide to Planning Nonviolent Campaigns, 2nd Edition Paperback – 3 maart 2021
May your change campaign be very well prepared, democratic and successful. And that it create concensus for the necessasary changes.
“Democracy” essentialy means that the Demos (Latin for population) lead society and economy. Total agreement is not needed.
Populist governments always fail because its powercontroling leaders select loyal/obedient subleaders over competent ones.
And dictators can not cope with complexity so they do dictate from very simplified mental models in their heads, instead of listening to messages from the population who may have learned fast from what they do together. If people no longer listen & understand eachother and can discuss issues openly, only then bullets will start to fly.
So the plans for change should include processes for open learning and continuing improvement in the future. Otherwise you construct a “From Dictatorship To new Dictatorship”. Egypt fell into that trap. Until now.
This book goes much further the hidden communities contain quite clever software wizzkids and white hat geeks that start to communicate with eachother. And they stop the greedy money gathering oligarch systems. Yes, they can hit the parasites. A last try to stop the process of extermination of humanity.
This new book is also in German but it is being translated by the publisher @KiWi_Verlag (Kiepenheuer & Witsch , Koln)
About the author: Sibylle Berg lives in Zürich, Schwitzerland. Her work consists of 27 theater plays, 16 books and was translated in 34 languages. Latest Vlog: “Nerds retten die welt” 2020.
I hope we survive. Not for me, but for my children and grandchildren. When I ask them ‘what do you want to be in the future, they usualy answer as nerds do: ‘older than now :-)’ .
jaap van till, TheConnectivist
PS: i will add a more in-depht review later, when I have read it.
PS 2 there is a video leader about this book, see for that the Instagram site of @sibylleberg
This is a Must-See video of an interview by mrs. Pim Kemasingki Editor of “City Life” – Chiang Mai, of the famous inspirer of the P2P FoundationMichel Bauwens. See also the Foundations blog.
I recommend that take a look of this video several times. It might contain ideas that are unfamiliar to you, but will reveal themselves faster than lightning in the near future. I that sense Michel is a GURU and P2P-ORACLE.
Much of his recent work focusses on Commons and sharing work and wealth creation at local / city scales. “Cosmo-Local” instead of national or Neo-Lib (WEF).
He also talks about crypto money and what China is doing.
All looked at from a long time perspective, as it should be. I am also happy that he briefly mentioned the new balance which is developing between the 3 poles of the Trias Internetica , that I have introduced years ago: The State / Business / Civil Society .
Invite him to come and present his views on what we can DO !